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Democracy in India

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Democracy in Pakistan and Role of Military.
According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the tenure of a democratically elected Prime Minister is 5 years and an Army Chief is selected for the term of 3 years. The same is the case with India but in the previous 72 years after independence, Pakistan got 22 Prime Ministers and 14 COASs however India got 14 Prime Ministers and 28 COASs. This indicates the impact and influence of the military over democracy in Pakistan and democracy over the military in India.
How democracy is run in Pakistan? Lets review the previous 20 years.
As a COAS is selected for the term of 3 years, so for the time from 1999 to 2022 we are assumed to have 8 COASs however Pakistan had only 4 COASs for the tenure these 23 years, General Parvez Musharraf, General Ashfaque Parvez Kiyani, General Raheel Sharif and General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
A Prime Minister is elected for the tenure of 5 years according to the constitution, so we were assumed to have 4 Prime Ministers from 1999 to 2019, but on the contrary, Pakistan had 8 Prime Ministers in these 20 years, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Shaukat Aziz, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, Raja Parvez Ashraf, Mian Nawaz Sharif, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and Imran Khan.
The situation has been contrary in above where we were assumed to have 4 Prime Ministers and 8 COASs but we had 8 Prime Ministers and 4 COASs in the last 20 years.
The grip of the Pakistani army on the country is absolute. Every major corporation or public authority is headed by a serving or ex-army personnel. Talking of free and fair elections or democracy is a sham. Just as an example:
1- Anti Narcotics Force, Director-General: Major General Arif Malik
2- SUPARCO, Director: Major General Qaiser Anees
‎3- ERRA, Chairman: Lt Gen Omar Mahmood Hayat
4- Pakistan International Airlines, Chairmen: Air Marshal Arshad Mahmood
5- Naya Pakistan Housing Authority, Chairmen: Lt General Anwar Ali
6- National Development Council, Member: General Qamar Bajwa, COAS
7- Economic Advisory Committee, Member: General Qamar Bajwa, COAS
8- NAB Lahore, Director-General: Major Retd Shahzad Saleem
9- WAPDA, Chairmen: Lt General Muzammil Hussain
10- Ministry of Interior, Minister: Brigadier Ijaz Shah
11- Pakistan Television, Managing Director: Major General Asif Ghafoor
12- Civil Aviation Authority, Director: Sq Leader (Retd) Shahrukh Nusrat
13- Airport Security Force, Director: Major General Zafar ul Haq
14-National Disaster Management Authority, Executive: Lt General Omar Mahmood
15- Federal Public Service Commission, Member: Major General Muhammad Azeem Asif
The count goes on and on...
Out of the 16 Generals who headed the Army, 6 were appointed by PM NAWAZ SHARIF. But he had the dubious distinction of having never given an extension to any COAS.
So, BAJWA planned well ahead of this coup against Nawaz Sharif; knowing well that his tenure will end in 2019 if Nawaz Sharif would be the PM. He would go down as another nefarious name in the history of Pakistani generals along with the Imran Khan who sold his soul to them.
If you want to know why Pakistan is a failed state & where India succeeded. It’s about democracy & civil supremacy.
In the 72 years since partition, in India 26 Army Chiefs served to average 2.7 years per tenure. Pakistan had 10 Army Chiefs, averaging 7.2 years tenure; 4 imposed martial law & each of them has the dubious distinction of losing territory. Three of them had thirty years of rule between them.
Wherever democracy is in threat, the states are bound to fail, fail and fail.

Democracy in Pakistan and Role of Military.

According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the tenure of a democratically elected Prime Minister is 5 years and an Army Chief is selected for the term of 3 years. The same is the case with India but in the previous 72 years after independence, Pakistan got 22 Prime Ministers and 14 COASs however India got 14 Prime Ministers and 28 COASs. This indicates the impact and influence of the military over democracy in Pakistan and democracy over the military in India.

How democracy is run in Pakistan? Let's review the previous 20 years.
As a COAS is selected for the term of 3 years, so for the time from 1999 to 2022 we are assumed to have 8 COASs however Pakistan had only 4 COASs for the tenure these 23 years, General Parvez Musharraf, General Ashfaque Parvez Kiyani, General Raheel Sharif and General Qamar Javed Bajwa.

A Prime Minister is elected for the tenure of 5 years according to the constitution, so we were assumed to have 4 Prime Ministers from 1999 to 2019, but on the contrary, Pakistan had 8 Prime Ministers in these 20 years, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, Chaudhry Shuja'at Hussain, Shaukat Aziz, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, Raja Parvez Ashraf, Mian Nawaz Sharif, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and Imran Khan.

The situation has been contrary in above where we were assumed to have 4 Prime Ministers and 8 COASs but we had 8 Prime Ministers and 4 COASs in the last 20 years.

The grip of the Pakistani army on the country is absolute. Every major corporation or public authority is headed by a serving or ex-army personnel. Talking of free and fair elections or democracy is a sham. Just as an example:

1- Anti Narcotics Force, Director-General: Major General Arif Malik
2- SUPARCO, Director: Major General Qaiser Anees
‎3- ERRA, Chairman: Lt Gen Omar Mahmood Hayat
4- Pakistan International Airlines, Chairmen: Air Marshal Arshad Mahmood
5- Naya Pakistan Housing Authority, Chairmen: Lt General Anwar Ali
6- National Development Council, Member: General Qamar Bajwa, COAS
7- Economic Advisory Committee, Member: General Qamar Bajwa, COAS
8- NAB Lahore, Director-General: Major Retd Shahzad Saleem
9- WAPDA, Chairmen: Lt General Muzammil Hussain
10- Ministry of Interior, Minister: Brigadier Ijaz Shah
11- Pakistan Television, Managing Director: Major General Asif Ghafoor
12- Civil Aviation Authority, Director: Sq Leader (Retd) Shahrukh Nusrat
13- Airport Security Force, Director: Major General Zafar ul Haq
14-National Disaster Management Authority, Executive: Lt General Omar Mahmood
15- Federal Public Service Commission, Member: Major General Muhammad Azeem Asif

The count goes on and on...

Out of the 16 Generals who headed the Army, 6 were appointed by PM NAWAZ SHARIF. But he had the 'dubious' distinction of having never given an extension to any COAS.

So, BAJWA planned well ahead of this coup against Nawaz Sharif; knowing well that his tenure will end in 2019 if Nawaz Sharif would be the PM. He would go down as another nefarious name in the history of Pakistani generals along with the Imran Khan who sold his soul to them.
If you want to know why Pakistan is a failed state & where India succeeded. It’s about democracy & civil supremacy.

In the 72 years since partition, in India 26 Army Chiefs served to average 2.7 years per tenure. Pakistan had 10 Army Chiefs, averaging 7.2 years tenure; 4 imposed martial law & each of them has the dubious distinction of losing territory. Three of them had thirty years of rule between them.

Wherever democracy is in threat, the states are bound to fail, fail and fail.
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US-Iran Sanctions: Impact and The Way Forward:
US-Iran sanctions, their backgrounds, and their impacts are story as old as 40+ years. The economic, military, and scientific sanctions against Iran have produced a chequered history of US-Iran relations. The highs and lows between their relations could be seen under these few instances:
1. 1950s:  Iran’s nuclear program started with the help US under ‘Atoms for peace program’
2. 1979:  Start of sanctions after Iranian Revolution, a series of event against the then
monarch of Iran.
3. 2000s: Further exacerbation of sanctions after concerns over covert Iranian nuclear
program
4. 2015: Iran deal- A diplomatic effort by President Obama and others to put an end to
sanctions and agree on a way forward.
5. 2018: Trump announced withdrawal from Iran deal; re-imposition of further sanctions.
Impact on Iran:
The impact of US sanctions on Iran and its economy is debatable: neither truly devastating nor glooming. On devastating front, sanctions have severely effected Iran ability to trade with world: Despite being 4th largest oil hub, Iran has barely existent access to international financial system. This makes US to cripple Iran without even engaging in a physical war. However, given decades long complexity, Iranians have tried to found their ways around sanctions. Increase in localization and seeking cooperation with regional countries and organization, like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Line chart of Iran’s GDP (attached with the post) highlights this paradox.
The Way forward:
President Biden has maintained that US won’t lift sanctions against Iran. At the same time, there is hypothesis among policy circles that Iran might be embarking on resuming its nuclear program slowly. Hence, currently, neither US nor Iran are converging to resolve this issue diplomatically.
On another front, Iran’s long sought membership in SCO, a Eurasia security and stability organization, has reached final stage. SCO comprises of China, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and others as its members. Covering over 40% of world population and 20% of global GDP, SCO may give Iran platform to pitch its interest in front of regional community.
Despite diverse background of countries in SCO, majority have common adversary: US. The constant cold war between US & China. Critics highlight the growing China-Iran relations and Iran’s membership in SCO as Iran going for regional support. According to New York Times, China-Iran have been working on economic and security partnership that will clear pathway of Chinese investment into Russia, secure cheap supply of oil to China, and help in localization of Iranian banking, railway, sea ports, and other key sectors- reducing dependence on westerns system.
Conclusion
US have been following a hard sanction approach towards Iran, but Iran’s active retaliation and efforts to secure its interest is not unnoticeable. The current world order requires a resolute and restrained approach towards dealing with countries. The future contains two possibilities: (i) Either US continues with its bad-cop drive approach while Iran secures entrenched relations with regional economies (ii) Or US tries to deal with current situation with diplomacy: The last Iran deal of 2015 is a great example of this quest.Image attachment

US-Iran Sanctions: Impact and The Way Forward:

US-Iran sanctions, their backgrounds, and their impacts are story as old as 40+ years. The economic, military, and scientific sanctions against Iran have produced a chequered history of US-Iran relations. The highs and lows between their relations could be seen under these few instances:
1. 1950s: Iran’s nuclear program started with the help US under ‘Atoms for peace program’
2. 1979: Start of sanctions after Iranian Revolution, a series of event against the then
monarch of Iran.
3. 2000s: Further exacerbation of sanctions after concerns over covert Iranian nuclear
program
4. 2015: Iran deal- A diplomatic effort by President Obama and others to put an end to
sanctions and agree on a way forward.
5. 2018: Trump announced withdrawal from Iran deal; re-imposition of further sanctions.

Impact on Iran:

The impact of US sanctions on Iran and its economy is debatable: neither truly devastating nor glooming. On devastating front, sanctions have severely effected Iran ability to trade with world: Despite being 4th largest oil hub, Iran has barely existent access to international financial system. This makes US to cripple Iran without even engaging in a physical war. However, given decades long complexity, Iranians have tried to found their ways around sanctions. Increase in localization and seeking cooperation with regional countries and organization, like Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Line chart of Iran’s GDP (attached with the post) highlights this paradox.

The Way forward:

President Biden has maintained that US won’t lift sanctions against Iran. At the same time, there is hypothesis among policy circles that Iran might be embarking on resuming its nuclear program slowly. Hence, currently, neither US nor Iran are converging to resolve this issue diplomatically.
On another front, Iran’s long sought membership in SCO, a Eurasia security and stability organization, has reached final stage. SCO comprises of China, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and others as its members. Covering over 40% of world population and 20% of global GDP, SCO may give Iran platform to pitch its interest in front of regional community.
Despite diverse background of countries in SCO, majority have common adversary: US. The constant cold war between US & China. Critics highlight the growing China-Iran relations and Iran’s membership in SCO as Iran going for regional support. According to New York Times, China-Iran have been working on economic and security partnership that will clear pathway of Chinese investment into Russia, secure cheap supply of oil to China, and help in localization of Iranian banking, railway, sea ports, and other key sectors- reducing dependence on westerns system.
Conclusion
US have been following a hard sanction approach towards Iran, but Iran’s active retaliation and efforts to secure its interest is not unnoticeable. The current world order requires a resolute and restrained approach towards dealing with countries. The future contains two possibilities: (i) Either US continues with its bad-cop drive approach while Iran secures entrenched relations with regional economies (ii) Or US tries to deal with current situation with diplomacy: The last Iran deal of 2015 is a great example of this quest.
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As the Taliban gains complete control of Afghanistan, the situation there keeps getting worse by the day.

in the fist edition of Open Talks by WDI, we have WDI founder Siddharth Chaudhary in discussion with Préity Üpala, a Political Analyst presently residing in the US. The discussion hosted by Govind Joshi covers the past, present and possible future of Afghanistan.
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Really good analysis by Sidharth

The British Monarch: Ailing Health
The Queen canceled her trip on the 20th of October 2021 to Northern Ireland, where she planned a two-day trip. The Queen’s medical team advised her to avoid making the trip given her health condition, and she had to follow the guidelines reluctantly. 
The Queen has recently been involved in events of particular global significance: hosting the Global investment Summit at Windsor Castle and holding online video conferences with Japanese ambassador Hajime Hayashi and the European Union Ambassador Joao de Almeida. 
Moreover, the Queen also met with the new Governor-General of New Zealand and, as part of her duties, attended the races at Ascot, a town in East Berkshire, England. 
Context:
The British monarchy still carries a lot of sway and prowess among the international community. Different nations still look at the Queen, in essence, the monarchy, as a figurehead of wisdom and guidance. The Queen has played the role of a stable figure for the last several decades, where she has met different heads of state for the same country. 
The events she participated in earlier garnered tremendous media attention helping accumulate funds to support causes that can help uplift people out of cataclysmic poverty. They can also tackle other global issues like gender inequality, inequitable access to education, and lack of access to clean water sources, improving healthcare infrastructure in developing countries.
Symbolic Significance of the Queen:
If the Queen falls ill, it becomes a matter of political importance because she cannot go to events that support global causes and be a symbolic presence of stability. This facet creates an element of uncertainty that was not present before her absence. 
As an illustration, her absence in Northern Ireland showcases the importance of her visit, where if she were to go to Northern Ireland, it would have been her 26th visit. It is interesting to note that the Queen needs to go to these areas to address local issues in these regions. The presence of the Queen ensures that problems are immediately addressed. 
The Future to Follow:
A future without the Queen means that her historical legacy would come to an end. Naturally, her influence would perish as well. 
The loss of the Queen means a loss of a figurehead who people aspired to be. The Queen’s major philanthropy work, which inspires millions of people, would no longer have its charm or the core.

The British Monarch: Ailing Health

The Queen canceled her trip on the 20th of October 2021 to Northern Ireland, where she planned a two-day trip. The Queen’s medical team advised her to avoid making the trip given her health condition, and she had to follow the guidelines reluctantly.

The Queen has recently been involved in events of particular global significance: hosting the Global investment Summit at Windsor Castle and holding online video conferences with Japanese ambassador Hajime Hayashi and the European Union Ambassador Joao de Almeida.

Moreover, the Queen also met with the new Governor-General of New Zealand and, as part of her duties, attended the races at Ascot, a town in East Berkshire, England.

Context:

The British monarchy still carries a lot of sway and prowess among the international community. Different nations still look at the Queen, in essence, the monarchy, as a figurehead of wisdom and guidance. The Queen has played the role of a stable figure for the last several decades, where she has met different heads of state for the same country.

The events she participated in earlier garnered tremendous media attention helping accumulate funds to support causes that can help uplift people out of cataclysmic poverty. They can also tackle other global issues like gender inequality, inequitable access to education, and lack of access to clean water sources, improving healthcare infrastructure in developing countries.

Symbolic Significance of the Queen:

If the Queen falls ill, it becomes a matter of political importance because she cannot go to events that support global causes and be a symbolic presence of stability. This facet creates an element of uncertainty that was not present before her absence.

As an illustration, her absence in Northern Ireland showcases the importance of her visit, where if she were to go to Northern Ireland, it would have been her 26th visit. It is interesting to note that the Queen needs to go to these areas to address local issues in these regions. The presence of the Queen ensures that problems are immediately addressed.

The Future to Follow:

A future without the Queen means that her historical legacy would come to an end. Naturally, her influence would perish as well.

The loss of the Queen means a loss of a figurehead who people aspired to be. The Queen’s major philanthropy work, which inspires millions of people, would no longer have its charm or the core.
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World Democracy Index

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